Let's get started!


Saturday, April 02, 2005

They get knocked down, but they get up again.

I've decided to start posting a stock report. A stock report on the stocks we own.

Here is a listing of our current investments. I hope it is readable. I wanted to have it a little bigger, but I truly fear the wrath of Gravity Boy, so I had to keep the width at 500 pixels. So, the text is a little small.

The (7.00) is the commission paid for the transaction. The Profit (%) column is a real time (when you are not viewing a static image) assessment of your gain or loss. As you can see, we're pretty much in a downturn, however, we have been up as much as 13% (I think that was back in Dec). Recently, we were down around 15%, but over the last two weeks or so, we have been moving back towards the black. It's been a wild ride!

We first purchased Urban Outfitters (URBN) on November 9, 2004. This is silylily's employer. She works at their flagship Anthropologie store in Philadelphia (URBN is their parent company). The past few years, the stock has done very well. If only we had bought it a year or two ago. The company itself appears to have excellent growth potential over the next few years as they continue to open more and more new stores. Estimates I've read say the stock could rise to around 70 or 80 over the next year or two. Hopefully the estimates are way off and it will rise to 120!

Here is a look at it's past performance.

The next stock currently in our portfolio is Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI), first purchased on November 23, 2004. Looking back, I can see the amounts and timing of our purchases are odd. I should have committed the full amount on November 23 and got the best price - I could have gotten more shares. I have terrible timing though.

Both SIRI and URBN fluctuate every few days up and down. At times, it looks like the stocks are ready to take off as they rise 10, 15 even 20% over a day or two. Then they go back down. I was trying to time it all right and then got nervous that I was waiting too long and ended up buying at a higher price then I would have if I just committed it all on November 23. Nonetheless, in the long run, I don't think it will have a major impact as this stock too is forecast to rise a great deal in the coming years.

With regards to SIRI, sure there's competition from XM, but that's good - it will keep Sirius on their toes. I also believe that once Howard Stern joins in 2006, they get their other programming in order and get more subscribers (all of which they are forecast to do) the stock is going to really take off. The other factor is that currently the company is not profitable. They will operate like that for the next few years as they are still basically in start-up mode. Once they reach their target number of subscribers though, they should turn profitable which should really help the stock. Plus they've got the cute dog. XM ain't got that! That's right bitch!

Here is a look at the past few years of SIRI...

I basically consider both of these stocks longer term investments which I will probably hold for at least the next year or two. Hopefully, for more than two years because then the Capital Gains Taxes are much much lower.

I don't know how often I will post a stock update. Definitely not daily. Maybe weekly, maybe monthly, maybe whenever the hell I feel like it. Post them I will though.